MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2021
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0501 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY / NEB PANHANDLE / NERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 192201Z - 192300Z
   
   WHILE STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE
   AFTERNOON SPILLING EWD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS...THE NEED FOR A WW IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE UNLIKELY. 
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE NRN
   PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...N OF A FRONT EXTENDING W TO E
   FROM SERN CO INTO WRN MO.  N OF THE BOUNDARY...MOIST NELY UPSLOPE
   FLOW AND AN EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY ARE BOTH LIMITING THE
   MAGNITUDE OF SURFACE HEATING AS TEMPS ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE
   REMAIN AOB 80 DEG F.  DESPITE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE /35-50
   KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR/...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING OVER
   THE DISCUSSION AREA.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE ANALYZED BY THE RUC MOVING
   EWD ACROSS THE ERN UT/WRN CO APPEARS TO BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN
   INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY TO THE W ACROSS NWRN CO AND S-CNTRL WY. 
   AS THIS DISTURBANCES MOVES EWD...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
   ACROSS THE REGION FROM W TO E. 
   
   TRENDS IN RADAR MOSAIC THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN CONVECTION
   STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN VIGOR AS IT MOVES EWD ALONG AND E OF THE I-25
   CORRIDOR--LIKELY DUE TO THE EXISTING INVERSION INHIBITING SUSTAINED
   SURFACE-BASED PARCEL INFLOW.  STORM INTENSITY/SEVERITY SEEMS TO BE
   HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON STORMS REMAINING SURFACE-BASED OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 08/19/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   40150435 40330457 42550516 42780481 42860421 42790372
               42620345 40610276 40290301 40100375 40150435