MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2005
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0251 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS  ERN NEB INTO WRN IA...NRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 785...
   
   VALID 181951Z - 182115Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 785
   CONTINUES.
   
   AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF WW 785 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE
   POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WW OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   STRONGEST LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON
   THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANK OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
   THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  NEW STORMS BEGINNING TO FORM WITHIN THIS
   ZONE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW THAT SHOULD
   BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AND SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
   SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...AIDED BY MODEST SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW /AROUND 20 KT AT 850 MB/.  INHIBITION FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   PARCELS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS IS
   BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MIXED
   LAYER CAPE NOW ON THE ORDER OF 3000-4000 J/KG.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
   SIGNIFICANT FURTHER CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH
   INTO AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
   COULD IMPACT THE OMAHA/LINCOLN AREA BY 22/23Z.  THIS WILL BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING RISK FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS...PERHAPS ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/18/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
   
   LAT...LON   41909464 41299423 40729413 40319439 40079482 40019568
               40109691 40779765 41529813 42649855 42809785 42129670
               41909464