MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1991
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0329 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NWRN OK...ERN/CNTRL TX PANHANDLE...S-CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 162029Z - 162230Z
   
   A FEW TSTMS COULD PRODUCE MICROBURSTS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS.
   HOWEVER...WITH THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE DISORGANIZED AND POSE
   ONLY AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.
   
   MESOANALYSIS AT 20Z PLACES A SFC LOW IN S-CNTRL KS ALONG A COLD
   FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS FAR NWRN OK INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. A
   WARM FRONT ARCS EWD AND THEN SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   SERN KS AND NERN OK...WITH AN INFLECTION NOTED JUST SOUTH OF TULSA
   OWING TO REMNANT CLOUDINESS OVER E-CNTRL OK...AND EXTENDS FARTHER
   EAST INTO PORTIONS OF SERN OK AND SRN AR. OVER THE SRN FRINGES OF A
   WNW/ENE-ORIENTED RIBBON OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS ACROSS SWRN
   KS...DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT AND NEAR THE SFC LOW CONTINUE TO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN OK. ADDITIONAL TOWERING CUMULUS
   ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND NEAR THE SFC LOW IN
   S-CNTRL KS COULD EVOLVE INTO DEEPER CONVECTION THROUGH
   22-23Z...WHILE STORMS OVER OKLAHOMA INCREASE IN NUMBER/INTENSITY AS
   THE LOW-LEVEL FORCING INTERACTS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.
   THE MIXED LAYER WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BETWEEN THE WARM AND COLD
   FRONTS HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPENED...OWING TO SFC TEMPERATURES FROM
   THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 105 DEGREES...WITH DCAPE VALUES AOA 1200 J/KG
   PER 18Z LAMONT RAOB AND MODIFIED 12Z NORMAN RAOB. THIS WILL SUPPORT
   MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
   HOWEVER...WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR OWING TO AOB 20 KT OF FLOW BELOW
   THE 6-KM-AGL-LEVEL PER AREA VWP DATA...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
   EXHIBIT PRIMARILY PULSE CHARACTERISTICS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   SLOWLY MOVE EWD/ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POTENTIALLY MOVING
   INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK AFTER 23Z.
   
   ..COHEN.. 08/16/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   35690239 36140133 36979976 37599802 37589662 36919606
               36089610 35109713 34659839 34560089 35120244 35690239