MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1988
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0937 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...SERN AND S-CNTRL ND...FAR NWRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 782...
   
   VALID 160237Z - 160400Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 782
   CONTINUES.
   
   SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 782 THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A BOWING SEGMENT
   EAST OF BIS APPEARED TO BE ANCHORED ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EWD IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
   BOUNDARY TOWARD JMS.
   
   FURTHER TO THE W...MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING FROM
   FAR SERN MT INTO SWRN SD. THIS WAS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO DEEP LAYER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT CAUSED BY EJECTING VORT MAX ACROSS S-CNTRL MT PER
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES /PER GGW AND BIS
   00Z RAOBS/ AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL
   BE POSSIBLE AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
   THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THESE STORMS TRACK EWD INTO THE
   WRN DAKOTAS.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 08/16/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
   
   LAT...LON   44990432 45000625 47750627 48090532 48530218 48590035
               48349986 47769925 46759916 45979919 45510066 45200315
               44990432