MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1971
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0530 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OH...CNTRL AND ERN KY...FAR N-CNTRL TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 132230Z - 140000Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK GENERALLY EWD
   THROUGH THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   AND WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS. A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AS SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   ISOLATED.
   
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS MAINLY BEING DRIVEN BY DEEP LAYER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING/AMPLIFYING TROUGH. AIR MASS
   ACROSS THE REGION WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES
   APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 60 TO LOW
   70S. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS BUT GIVEN LACK OF
   ANY SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION.
   HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25-35 KT MAY ALLOW A
   FEW STORMS TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   OR DOWNBURST WINDS.  ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND A
   WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 08/13/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...
   
   LAT...LON   39278399 39088483 38338595 37838641 37368671 36808691
               36428689 36168622 36148542 36608408 37078334 37618282
               38228270 38738286 39088332 39278399