MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1966
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND FAR ERN MS...MUCH OF AL...WRN FL
   PANHANDLE...PORTIONS OF ERN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 131857Z - 132100Z
   
   A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
   ANTICIPATED LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND ISOLATED NATURE OF
   THE SVR THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   MID-AFTERNOON SFC MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN AGGREGATE FRONT/REMNANT
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD FROM A 1013-MB LOW OVER CNTRL GA
   ACROSS CNTRL AL/MS INTO FAR NERN LA AND SRN AR. NORTH OF THIS
   FEATURE...WNWLY FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IS ADVECTING
   MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN MS. BAROCLINIC
   CIRCULATIONS OWING TO DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING OVER THE ERN/SRN
   FRINGES OF THIS CLOUDINESS...COMBINED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
   BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES...WILL CONTINUE TO
   FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COLD POOLS
   ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD/ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA...SUPPORTING
   REGENERATIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. AMPLE INSOLATION
   AND SFC HEATING OUTSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER HAVE
   SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-3000 J/KG UPON
   MODIFICATIONS TO THE OBSERVED 12Z JACKSON/BIRMINGHAM SOUNDINGS. THIS
   WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS PULSE CONVECTION...GIVEN GENERALLY LESS THAN
   20 KT OF FLOW IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE PER AREA VWP DATA. A
   FEW INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS EMANATING FROM WET MICROBURSTS WITH
   COLLAPSING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...GIVEN DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
   900 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
   AFTER 00Z AS DIABATIC HEATING WANES.
   
   ..COHEN.. 08/13/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   34518677 33858572 32008587 30808680 30478787 30388964
               30719119 31619174 32129173 32499159 32569091 32379000
               32398915 32788881 33608858 34378826 34518677