MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN KS INTO NW OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 121928Z - 122030Z
   
   A WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT CLEAR...BUT 
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
   THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF A THERMAL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS
   APPEARS LIKELY TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS/SUPPORT FOR INCREASING
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
   THAT THIS COULD OCCUR BY THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME...IN THE PRESENCE OF
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE
   CAPE OF 2000-3000+ J/KG.  DESPITE RATHER MODEST DEEP LAYER WESTERLY
   MEAN FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 KT OR SO...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
   CONDUCIVE TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY STRONG AND DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.  IT APPEARS THAT
   SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD POOLS MAY SUPPORT PROPAGATION INTO NORTHWEST
   OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/12/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   38880056 38909942 38279845 37399717 36519731 36019865
               36729986 37570048 38150111 38880056