MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1955
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN...SERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 121844Z - 122015Z
   
   A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY EXIST FOR INCREASING MARGINAL SEVERE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   THE WEAKENING COLD POOL FROM AN EARLY MORNING CLUSTER OF STORMS
   CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
   AROUND 25-30 KT.  LIFT ALONG AND ABOVE THIS FEATURE IS MAINTAINING
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER
   INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 21-22Z...AS INHIBITION WEAKENS FOR MOIST AND
   POTENTIALLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS AHEAD OF
   IT...ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.  BENEATH 30+ KT
   NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
   ENHANCE THE RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL...PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.  HOWEVER...THIS THREAT MAY
   NOT BE PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED...AND DRIER AIR EMANATING FROM THE
   RETREATING OHIO VALLEY RIDGE PROBABLY WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD EXTENT
   OF THE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/12/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...
   
   LAT...LON   37939350 38259195 38869147 39109073 38089012 37059075
               36609234 36639338 37149394 37539388 37939350