MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1934
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL THRU S CNTRL AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 101923Z - 102030Z
   
   DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED ISOLATED/SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE SEVERE
   THREAT...A WATCH PROBABLY WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSING AND
   WEAKENING CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BOUNDARY IS INTENSIFYING TO THE
   WEST SOUTHWEST OF TUSCALOOSA.  THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN A VERY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS... WITH
   CAPE NOW RATHER LARGE...IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
   VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A 40-50 KT 500 MB SPEED
   MAXIMA...ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX MIGRATING
   EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE...IS ENHANCING
   ACTIVITY.  AT LEAST SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY OCCUR WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME...AS IT TENDS TO
   PROPAGATE TOWARD THE MONTGOMERY AREA WITHIN WEAK TO MODEST
   NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW.  THIS MOTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY
   ADVECT CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE BETTER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   MID-LEVEL JET STREAK...WITH WEAKENING TRENDS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/10/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
   
   LAT...LON   33228802 32738699 32228629 31838660 32318785 32708834
               32968826 33228802