MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0602 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN NEB...WRN KS...NERN CO...ERN
   WY...EXTREME SWRN SD.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 754...
   
   VALID 092302Z - 100100Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 754 CONTINUES.
   
   CONTINUE WW.  WHILE TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED...SVR POTENTIAL
   STILL APPEARS RATHER WIDELY DISTRIBUTED...IF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...ACROSS WW.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL MO WNWWD ACROSS
   SLN-RSL-HLC AREAS...DECELERATING WITH WWD EXTENT.  PREFRONTAL
   CONFLUENCE LINE WAS ANALYZED NEAR HLC-EWK-CNU...DRIFTING SEWD OVER
   ERN KS AND QUASISTATIONARY ELSEWHERE.  ANOTHER WAVY CONFLUENCE LINE
   IN WARM SECTOR WAS DRAWN BETWEEN DDC AND ITS INTERSECTION WITH
   PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INITIALLY OVER RAWLINS COUNTY.  LEADING
   SUPERCELL OVER SERN PORTIONS WW...ENE OF GLD...HAS EVOLVED INTO
   QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENT...WITH EXTENT OF ITS SEWD PROGRESS
   STILL UNCERTAIN ATTM GIVEN MIXED SIGNALS IN PARAMETER SPACE.  LIFT
   INVOF THESE BOUNDARIES MAY HELP TO FOCUS THIS ACTIVITY AND/OR
   SUPPORT NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW EXTENDING TO ITS W.
   HOWEVER...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER
   MLCINH WITH SEWD EXTENT ACROSS KS...WHICH ONLY WILL STRENGTHEN THIS
   EVENING WITH ONSET OF SFC DIABATIC COOLING.  PRIND UPSCALE COLD-POOL
   ORGANIZATION AND RELATED FORCED ASCENT WILL BE NEEDED TO COUNTERACT
   THAT TENDENCY FOR ACTIVITY TO LAST MORE THAN A FEW COUNTIES PAST
   EXISTING WW BOUNDS.  IF CONVECTION CAN SURVIVE ADVERSE ENVIRONMENTAL
   INFLUENCE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...DVLPG LLJ WILL AID IN POTENTIAL
   NOCTURNAL ORGANIZATION.  ACTIVITY N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SWRN
   NEB AND NWRN KS MAY POSE THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
   GUSTS...THOUGH WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE CONSTRAINED BY STATIC
   STABILITY IN RELATIVELY FRESH OUTFLOW LAYER.  TSTMS ALSO MAY FORM
   FROM TOWERS ALREADY EVIDENT OVER NRN PORTION OF FRONT
   RANGE...ESPECIALLY WITH AIDED LIFT FROM OUTFLOW...AND MOVE EWD-SEWD 
   WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR.
   
   ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED STG-SVR TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND MOVE EWD TO SEWD ACROSS ADJOINING
   PLAINS...INCLUDING ACTIVITY ALREADY OBSERVED BETWEEN GCC-CDR MOVING
   TOWARD EXTREME SWRN SD. NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MLCAPE AND
   RELATIVELY WEAK CINH IS EVIDENT NEAR AND W OF 104W AMIDST 50-60 KT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  FARTHER E ACROSS SRN SD AND NRN NEB...LOW-LEVEL
   THETAE DIMINISHES STEADILY...WITH ENELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING
   TO NEGATIVE THETAE ADVECTION AND REINFORCEMENT OF STRONGER CINH.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/09/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   RIW...
   
   LAT...LON   40060505 42390529 43200633 43640640 43770478 43230282
               42080247 41180102 39339911 37929858 37980063 39200164
               40060505