MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1912
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1025 AM CDT TUE AUG 09 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN WY...SWRN SD...WRN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 091525Z - 091700Z
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.
   
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS AREA.  THIS IS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED
   WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO
   PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  ALTHOUGH VEERING WIND PROFILES
   WITH HEIGHT BENEATH 30-40+ KT NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW ARE
   CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG SHEAR...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EAST OF THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN ARE STILL MODEST...AND MAY STABILIZE AS CONVECTION
   BECOMES WIDESPREAD THROUGH 16-19Z.  AS A RESULT...WHILE A SEVERE
   HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST IN EARLY STORMS...AND PERHAPS ON THE WESTERN
   FLANK OF THE DEVELOPING BAND OF CONVECTION...IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT
   THIS WILL REQUIRE A WATCH.  THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE RISK FOR SEVERE
   STORMS IS STILL EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER STABILIZES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
   ACTIVITY.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/09/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   43760342 43490223 42700079 42170004 41230146 41420288
               41910358 42500447 43090451 43550407 43760342