MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1905
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0530 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OK...EXTREME S-CENTRAL KS...SERN PANHANDLE
   OF TX.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 082230Z - 090030Z
   
   TSTM COVERAGE FCST TO INCREASE FROM W-E OVER DISCUSSION AREA...WITH
   CORRESPONDINGLY MORE WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR GUSTS
   PRODUCING DAMAGE.
   
   22Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK MESOLOW INVOF AVK...CORRESPONDING
   CLOSELY TO CENTER OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE EVIDENT IN LOW-DBZ
   REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS IN THAT AREA.  LOW IS DRIFTING NEWD ALONG
   QUASISTATIONARY SFC FRONTAL ZONE ANALYZED NEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL KS. 
   THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED WSWWD FROM LOW ACROSS TX PANHANDLE NEAR
   PPA-AMA-TCC LINE.  WAVY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
   EXTENDED FROM ADAIR-GRANT COUNTIES OK...AND WAS MOVING NWD 5-15 KT
   FROM TUL AREA WWD.  PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WIND-SHIFT LINE WAS ANALYZED
   FROM LOW SWWD PAST PVW TO SERN NM...PASSING THROUGH DIFFUSE DRYLINE
   OVER ERN PANHANDLE.  BKN LINE OF CONVECTIVE TOWERS...INCLUDING
   WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS...ARE EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY
   ATOP SFC TROUGH ON BOTH SIDES OF DRYLINE...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION ALONG
   AND E OF DRYLINE WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR GREATEST LONGEVITY AS IT
   MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.  AS
   FRONT CATCHES UP TO TROUGH...CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
   THEREON MAY INCREASE.
   
   DOWNSHEAR ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL OK IS CHARACTERIZED BY
   HOT/DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN 100S F FOR
   ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND DEW POINTS 50S TO LOW 60S S OF OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG
   DCAPE BENEATH SOMEWHAT SMALLER VALUES OF MLCAPE.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AS CONVECTION INITIALLY NEAR TROUGH
   EXPANDS UPSCALE AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CINH...AND SPREADS EWD.  EVENTUAL
   COALESCENCE INTO QLCS WITH AGGREGATED COLD POOL IS POSSIBLE AS
   WELL...FURTHER CONCENTRATING WIND THREAT.  ALTHOUGH
   AMBIENT/DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
   FAVORABLE...LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS TO VORTICITY...MOISTURE AND
   EFFECTIVE SRH ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALSO MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST
   TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND MORE LONG-LIVED BOWING
   THREAT...WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY IN
   SUSTAINED BASIS.  GIVEN NWLY/WNWLY FLOW ALOFT...CONVECTION SHOULD
   MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD TO SEWD ACROSS AREA.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
   CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...RANGING FROM 35-45 KT OVER
   KS/OK BORDER REGION TO AOB 25 KT OVER SRN OK.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/08/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   35100068 35939925 36459853 37059826 37199759 36989674
               36459575 35649536 34979611 34669746 34599971 34660066
               35100068