MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD/NEB...CNTRL NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 082009Z - 082115Z
   
   INITIATION OF STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME MODEL SUGGESTION
   OF MORE ROBUST STORMS OCCURRING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SHOULD
   STRONGER CONVECTION OCCUR...DMGG WINDS AND HAIL WILL BECOME
   POSSIBLE...AND THE AREA MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR A WW.
   
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ERODE AMIDST AMPLE
   SURFACE HEATING. MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY WOULD SUPPORT INITIAL
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT IN WRN SD/NEB...AND ALONG A
   REMNANT W-E ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN CNTRL NEB...OBSERVED ON 20Z
   VISIBLE IMAGERY NEAR LBF. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
   THE BLACK HILLS...CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
   ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MCD AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS IS GENERALLY
   TOO FAST IN INITIATING CONVECTION...THOUGH RECENT HI-RES SUGGESTS
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WEAK
   UPPER SUPPORT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VORT MAX ACROSS WRN SD/NEB AND
   ANOTHER NEAR THE N CNTRL NEB/S CNTRL SD AROUND THE BASE OF A COMPACT
   UPPER LOW IN SRN MANITOBA MAY INFLUENCE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
   WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF THE
   UPPER/SURFACE FEATURES...OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY BE LIMITED.
   HOWEVER...SHOULD DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
   OCCUR...MODEST WLY FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
   ACROSS WRN/CNTRL NEB SUGGEST THAT SEMI-ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR
   CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS MAY CONTINUE EWD...PRODUCING HAIL AND DMGG
   WINDS.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 08/08/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   41209939 40680026 40950155 41240238 41620347 42300419
               42950424 43710383 43760316 42700176 42520112 42430029
               41209939