MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1892
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0713 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN KS...NRN OK.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 080013Z - 080245Z
   
   SPORADIC SVR/DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
   REGION...BOTH IN FORM OF ACTIVITY NOW OVER SWRN KS MOVING EWD AND
   ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND BETWEEN BOUNDARIES OUTLINED
   BELOW.  ORGANIZATION/DURATION MAY BE LIMITED GIVEN STRONG
   DIURNAL/DIABATIC INFLUENCE ON THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THREE PRIMARY BOUNDARIES OVER THIS REGION...
   1. OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR NIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN
   REINFORCED BY ACTIVITY NOW OVER SERN KS AND MO.  THIS WAVY BOUNDARY
   EXTENDS GENERALLY FROM BUTLER-RENO-HODGEMAN COUNTIES KS...N OF WHICH
   MLCINH BECOMES SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER DUE TO DROP-OFF IN SFC THETAE.
   
   2. CONVERGENCE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CORRESPONDING TO BKN BAND OF
   CONVECTION FROM GRAY COUNTY KS TO HUTCHINSON COUNTY TX...MOVING
   ESEWD 20-25 KT.
   3. DIFFUSE NRN EDGE OF OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT/DAYLONG BAND OF
   CLOUDS/PRECIP OVER CENTRAL OK.  THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING NWD 10-15 KT
   ACROSS NRN OK AND WEAKENING...HOWEVER STILL FEATURES PROGRESSIVELY
   STRONGER MLCINH AND LOWER THETAE TO ITS S.
   
   THESE BOUNDARIES SURROUND CONVECTIVELY PRISTINE CORRIDOR OF
   HOT...DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR...WITH SFC TEMPS 100S F AND
   DEW POINTS MID 50S TO MID 60S.  OBSERVED DDC RAOB AND MODIFIED RUC
   SOUNDINGS ACCORDINGLY YIELD MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG ATOP INVERTED-V
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITH 1000-2000 J/KG DCAPE VALUES.  THIS AREA
   ALSO LIES BENEATH SRN RIM OF WLYS ALOFT...CONTRIBUTING TO 30-40 KT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.  ENVIRONMENT THUS SUPPORTS EWD
   MOVEMENT/MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTION OVER SWRN KS AND ANY RESULTANT
   COLD POOLS FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  DAMAGING GUST THREAT WILL BECOME
   MORE CONDITIONAL WITH EWD EXTENT...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD THAT DIABATIC
   COOLING IN THIS RELATIVELY LOW-RH AIR MASS WILL GENERATE
   INCREASINGLY DEEP NEAR-SFC LAYER OF STATIC STABILITY.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/08/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   36680020 37680033 38150028 38469945 38039700 37279656
               36519705 36509765 36680020