MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1879
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1048 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 071548Z - 071745Z
   
   A CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS MAY PERSIST
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD KC METRO AREA. 
   REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.  PROBABILITY OF WATCH
   ISSUANCE BEFORE 21Z IS 60 PERCENT.
   
   MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT
   CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KS NORTH OF ICT TO NEAR SZL. 
   BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE AIDING IN
   MAINTAINING INFLOW TO A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
   KS NW OF CNK.  STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF 3000+ J/KG ALONG THE
   CORRIDOR JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  THIS MAY HELP TO ALLOW
   STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
   INTO WESTERN MO.  LOCAL VAD/PROFILER DATA SHOW 40-50 KNOT WESTERLY
   MID LEVEL WINDS...INDICATING SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
   SUPERCELL/BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. 
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH
   IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   ..HART.. 08/07/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
   
   LAT...LON   40289802 40009615 39419461 38559446 38039510 38019704
               38509892 39899877 40289802