MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB...WESTERN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 061958Z - 062230Z
   
   POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. 
   A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN
   PRESENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEB IS SLOWLY BURNING OFF...WHILE A CU
   FIELD INCREASES ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA.  DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE
   80S ARE YIELDING MUCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CAP
   REMAINING.  MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NEB WHICH MAY HELP TO INITIATE A FEW STORMS IN
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STEEP LOW AND
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR ALOFT.  THIS COUPLED WITH
   MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS IN THE STRONGER CELLS.  THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE
   INTENSIFICATION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THIS
   AFTERNOON FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
   
   ..HART.. 08/06/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...
   
   LAT...LON   41929985 42929831 42969584 41859473 40639549 40049764
               40240032 41929985