MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1863
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0447 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 050947Z - 051115Z
   
   A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
   ACROSS NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHWEST MO. TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
   
   A RELATIVELY SMALL /50-70 MILES NORTH-SOUTH EXTENT/ BUT INCREASINGLY
   ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STEADILY
   ACCELERATE /40 KT/ GENERALLY EASTWARD ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...NEARING
   THE MANHATTAN VICINITY AS OF 0945Z. A 57 KT WIND GUST WAS MEASURED
   AT CONCORDIA KS AROUND 0855Z. WITH A COLD POOL/PRESSURE RISES NOTED
   IN SURFACE DATA...SIGNS OF A POTENTIAL MCV/REAR INFLOW JET ARE
   LIKELY ADDITIONAL FACTORS FOR THE RECENT UPSWING IN
   ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. WHILE THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER AN
   INCREASINGLY STABLE NEAR-SURFACE AIRMASS AND A POORER LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT...WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES AND FORWARD
   PROPAGATION/ACCELERATION WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD WIND DAMAGE AT LEAST
   ON A SHORT-TERM/ISOLATED BASIS ACROSS NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHWEST
   MO.
   
   ..GUYER.. 08/05/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...
   
   LAT...LON   39669750 40059688 40049491 39729394 39159366 38719474
               38849698 39669750