MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1861
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0817 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...FAR NERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 050117Z - 050215Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/MARGINAL HAIL THREAT SHOULD PERSIST NEXT FEW
   HOURS...BUT TRANSITION TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT BY AROUND 03Z.
   THE PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE BY 03Z IS 20
   PERCENT.
   
   EWD-MOVING TSTM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE/ALONG THE NERN CO
   BORDER WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH DOWNSTREAM TSTM CELLS FORMING ALONG A
   ROUGHLY WSW/ENE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW/COLD POOL BOUNDARY IN W-CNTRL NEB.
   THE EWD-MOVING CLUSTERS WERE AIDED BY A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL SWLYS /AS SAMPLED BY MEDICINE BOW WY PROFILER/ AND
   RESULTED IN A 62 KT WIND GUST OBSERVED AT KAIA AT 0042Z.
   HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS WITH ERN EXTENT AS NOTED BY 00Z LBF
   RAOB WITH W/SWLYS AOA 40 KT RELEGATED ABOVE 300 MB AND RESULTANT
   NEARLY STATIONARY CELLS IN W-CNTRL NEB. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
   STORM-SCALE AMALGAMATION AND A TRANSITION TO A GREATER HEAVY RAIN
   THREAT GIVEN PRESENCE OF PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN /PER 00Z LBF RAOB/.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 08/05/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   41220370 41760349 42380264 42570194 42610117 42440062
               42140043 41970035 41670063 40850231 40630299 40580336
               40630368 41220370