MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1823
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0518 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MD...DEL...PORTIONS OF NJ...LONG ISLAND
   NY...SRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 711...
   
   VALID 012218Z - 012315Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 711
   CONTINUES.
   
   RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS DISCRETE AND SMALL CLUSTERS OF
   TSTMS ADVANCING SEWD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. THESE TSTMS HAVE
   FORMED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE AND WEAKLY CONFLUENT SFC COLD
   FRONT...PLACED AT APPROXIMATELY 20 E MSV TO 20 SE CXY PER 22Z SFC
   SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS MODEST /AROUND
   20 KTS/ DUE TO WEAK AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER
   HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE...SEVERAL OF THESE TSTMS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY
   STRONG REFLECTIVITY CORES...LIKELY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR HAIL AND
   ISOLATED DMGG DOWNBURST WINDS. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MOTION
   SUGGESTS CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVER SRN NY AND WRN CT SHOULD REACH THE
   ATLANTIC COAST BY 23Z. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
   SUPPORTIVE FOR ADDITIONAL GENERATION OF TSTMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
   NEXT 1-2 HRS. A GRADUAL TREND DOWNWARD IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS
   EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIABATIC
   HEATING.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 08/01/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...LWX...
   
   LAT...LON   42727295 42697086 41217109 40637310 39747421 39117484
               38807589 39017626 39467630 41237481 41837408 42727295