MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1814
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1107 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN PA...SRN TIER AND ERN NY TO WRN NEW
   ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 011607Z - 011700Z
   
   WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF NRN PA...SRN TIER OF
   NY TO WRN NEW ENGLAND.
   
   LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT
   ADVANCING E/SEWD THROUGH NERN AND SRN NY INTO NWRN PA AND NRN OH. 
   AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN UNDERWAY ALONG AND E TO S OF THIS
   BOUNDARY WHERE MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.25-1.5 INCH/...STRONG
   SURFACE HEATING AND ERN EXTENT OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5
   C PER KM/ ARE ALREADY RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.  THE
   THERMODYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL CU/TCU DEVELOPMENT...AS
   NOW OBSERVED PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INVOF THE WIND SHIFT AND
   HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NRN PA TO WRN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT SUGGESTS STORM ORGANIZATION WILL TEND TO BE
   MULTICELL WITH SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
   REMAIN AOB 25 KT.  GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..PETERS.. 08/01/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   
   LAT...LON   44047399 44947331 44957174 42637255 41567421 41267624
               41277790 41507890 42047850 42567772 42927612 43627441
               44047399