MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1811
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0701 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH...LAKE ERIE...WRN NY...NW PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 011201Z - 011330Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS LAKE
   ERIE...NRN OH AND NW PA WHERE WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE. WIND
   DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
   LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED VORTICITY MAX EVIDENT ON WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS. AS THE STORMS MOVE SWD INTO NE OH...SFC
   TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
   WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BY 15 TO
   18Z. THIS MAY SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AND STORM ROTATION
   WITH A HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT CELLS. IN
   ADDITION...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY IF STORMS
   CAN INCREASE IN COVERAGE COINCIDENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD
   POOL.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 08/01/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX...
   
   LAT...LON   40988105 41357820 41687659 41967600 42417591 42707637
               43277785 43447934 43178027 42438122 42208272 42198387
               41508425 40978355 40988105