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Mesoscale Discussion 1809 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1809
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NE ND...WRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 707...
VALID 010731Z - 010900Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 707
CONTINUES.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 707 WITH WIND DAMAGE
LIKELY WITH A LINE MOVING INTO THE NERN PART OF THE WATCH. AN AREAL
EXTENSION WILL LIKELY BE DONE ACROSS FAR NE ND AND FAR NW MN. NEW WW
MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF MN AROUND 10Z.
A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING LINE-SEGMENT ACROSS NE ND IS LOCATED ALONG A
TIGHT GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE. THIS
ORIENTATION OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG WITH STORM PROPAGATION
SHOULD RESULT IN A RIGHTWARD TURN OF THE LINEAR MCS AFFECTING THE
ERN PART OF WW 707 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL...THE NRN PART OF
THE LINE MAY MOVE INTO AREAS ADJACENT TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WHICH
WILL JUSTIFY AN AREAL EXTENSION OF THE WATCH. AS THE LINE APPROACHES
THE ERN BOUNDARY OF THE WATCH...A NEW WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY
WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT EXTENDING EWD INTO PART OF NCNTRL MN LATER
THIS MORNING.
..BROYLES.. 08/01/2011
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 46459389 48449559 48629781 48149861 47429874 46839780
45739520 46459389
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