MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1803
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1222 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CAROLINAS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 311722Z - 311845Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS. THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER AN ORGANIZED
   SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   AT 17Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM AGS IN E-CNTRL GA TO GSB IN ERN NC...WHERE
   IT THEN CURVES EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF
   SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR
   FLO...ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKLY CONVERGENT CYCLONIC FLOW. EARLY
   AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR HAVE WARMED INTO THE
   90S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. THIS SURFACE AIRMASS IS
   AIDING IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE
   VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG. SO FAR...STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING MAINLY ON
   THE COOL SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...BUT CONTINUED WARM SECTOR
   DESTABILIZATION AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
   THE NEXT FEW HRS. AREA VWP DATA AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   MIDLEVEL NWLY FLOW AS WELL AS DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS GENERALLY
   AOB 20 KT...WHICH IS VERY MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT. THUS...ITS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER A WW WILL BE NEEDED.
   HOWEVER...IF STORM CLUSTERS CAN MERGE AND ORGANIZE A MESOSCALE COLD
   POOL...THEN A WW MAY HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO.
   
   ..GARNER.. 07/31/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
   
   LAT...LON   33718166 34458100 34907973 35787846 35817702 35397566
               34517645 34397740 33877784 33667875 33067927 32318060
               33718166