MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1796
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL MO...NRN/CNTRL AR...ERN OK...FAR SERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 301735Z - 301900Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MO...NRN/CNTRL AR...ERN OK AND FAR SERN KS.
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFT
   CORES...BUT GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORM
   DEVELOPMENT...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.
   
   ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER ERN KS AND
   CNTRL MO HAS BEEN FOCUSED AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
   ALONG/N OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...NEW
   DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE CLOSER TO THE WARM
   SECTOR...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 90S...WHICH
   HAS AIDED IN STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. IN
   ADDITION...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S...ATMOSPHERE HAS
   BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG AT 17Z.
   THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRETCHING FROM ERN KS ACROSS CNTRL MO...AS
   WELL AS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER SRN MO...ERN OK AND NRN AR LATER IN
   THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
   ORGANIZED SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT...THE HOT SURFACE AIRMASS/STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG INDICATE
   SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFT CORES.
   
   ..GARNER.. 07/30/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   37878946 35558995 34849269 34679590 35619664 37039606
               38419256 38609032 37878946