MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1794
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0605 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...FAR NERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 301105Z - 301230Z
   
   RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING
   CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
   
   EARLY MORNING MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SFC STATIONARY FRONT
   EXTENDING FROM E-CNTRL MO TO SRN IL. NORTH OF THIS
   BOUNDARY...PLEASANT HILL MO VWP DATA SAMPLE A PORTION OF A
   SWLY/WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET...ASSOCIATED WITH 20-25 KT OF FLOW IN THE
   1-2-KM-AGL LAYER...ATOP NELY WINDS NEAR THE SFC. THE VERTICALLY
   VEERING WIND PROFILE IS INDICATIVE OF THE LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME IN
   PLACE NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE
   VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG FOR PARCELS ROOTED AROUND 850 MB...WITH
   ASCENT FROM THIS LEVEL EMANATING FROM ISENTROPIC ASCENT AUGMENTED BY
   CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THESE FACTORS WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
   AMIDST HIGH PWAT VALUES -- 2.10 TO 2.25 INCHES PER GPS DATA. WITH
   CLOUD-BEARING MEAN FLOW VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
   LOW-LEVEL FRONT WITH MAGNITUDES OF 15 TO 25 KT PER RUC FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS...THERE WILL BE A CONCERN FOR CONVECTIVE TRAINING OF
   MESO-BETA ELEMENTS FEATURING ONLY MODEST MOTIONS. THESE FACTORS WILL
   SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. BY 13Z...SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
   WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET.
   
   ..COHEN.. 07/30/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...
   
   LAT...LON   39499260 39489465 39639529 40129505 40229346 40209204
               39699171 39499260