MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1788
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0517 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV/VA/MD/DE TO SOUTHERN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 292217Z - 292345Z
   
   LINE OF STORMS MAY POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/SMALL HAIL THREAT
   ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV/MD/VA/DE TO SOUTHERN NJ THIS
   EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF
   THE THREAT WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
   A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ONGOING WITHIN A WSW-ENE CORRIDOR ACROSS
   EXTREME SOUTHERN PA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD
   SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV/MD/VA/DE AND SOUTHERN NJ
   THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF THESE
   STORMS REMAINS VERY HOT/MODESTLY MOIST...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES/RELATIVELY HIGH TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS CONDUCIVE FOR DOWNBURSTS
   ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE ON STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT/WESTERLIES
   ALOFT. FACTORS SUCH AS LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...COMBINED WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE BEING ORIENTED PARALLEL TO
   THE MEAN FLOW...ARE SUGGESTIVE OF NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND/SMALL HAIL THREAT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/29/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
   
   LAT...LON   39638023 39717964 39747855 39807695 39807538 39437506
               39087601 39257858 39428027 39638023