MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1782
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0106 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OH...SWRN/S-CNTRL PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 291806Z - 291930Z
   
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL MAY INCREASE AS
   THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL OH INTO SWRN/S-CNTRL PA.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO
   NRN OH. STRONG HEATING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT /I.E.
   TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S/ IS AIDING IN
   BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...FAVORING RECENT THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER W-CNTRL/CNTRL OH. IN ADDITION...THE HOT SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S IS CONTRIBUTING
   TOWARD MLCAPE VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG. DESPITE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
   FOR SVR...THE AREA RESIDES ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF 40+ KT MIDLEVEL
   WLYS...RESULTING IN MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED
   MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT. IF STORM CLUSTER EVOLVING OVER OH CAN DEVELOP
   A SURFACE COLD POOL...THEN THE PROBABILITY FOR A WW WOULD INCREASE.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HRS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 07/29/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...
   
   LAT...LON   41008353 40947819 39877772 39388182 39528381 39938487
               41008353