MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1780
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...LAKE ERIE...FAR NE OH...WRN NY AND
   NW PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697...
   
   VALID 290735Z - 290900Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR LAST SENTENCE FIRST PARAGRAPH
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697
   CONTINUES.
   
   A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN
   LOWER MI INTO LAKE ERIE. A SECONDARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD AFFECT WRN
   NY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WW ISSUANCE SHOULD BE NEEDED ACROSS
   WRN NY AND NW PA.
   
   A BOWING LINE-SEGMENT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SRN LOWER MI ON
   THE NERN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS LINE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
   A VORTICITY MAX EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS WITH
   ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET JUST TO THE WEST
   OF THE LINE-SEGMENT. THIS ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
   AND A 35 EWD STORM MOTION SHOULD PROMOTE A CONTINUED WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE ERN PART OF WW 691 OVER THE NEXT
   HOUR OR TWO.
   
   FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS ERN LAKE ERIE...AN ORGANIZED ROTATING
   STORM IS GOING TO MOVE INTO WRN NY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. AHEAD OF THE
   STORM...MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY...45 KT OF 0-6 KM
   SHEAR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE A WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT AND WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS WRN NY EARLY THIS
   MORNING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/29/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...
   
   LAT...LON   42017738 42787809 42907961 42928156 42658331 42528426
               42418500 42268591 41998633 41788627 41538575 41368503
               41598176 41617886 42017738