MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1768
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0709 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN THROUGH CNTRL SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 280009Z - 280215Z
   
   STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WRN AND EVENTUALLY INTO CNTRL SD THIS
   EVENING. STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND AND LARGE HAIL. WW ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO POTENTIAL
   LIMITING FACTORS FOR AN ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT...BUT AREA
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND THE BLACK
   HILLS OF CO APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING INTO AN
   MCS...BUT A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES PERSIST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE /1500-2000 J/KG/ MLCAPE. ELY POST FRONTAL
   0-2 KM WINDS WILL MAINTAIN 15-20 KT STORM RELATIVE INFLOW...HELPING
   TO SUSTAIN FORWARD PROPAGATION INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN 40-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGESTING
   POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED STRUCTURES...BUT FLOW IN THE 0-3
   KM LAYER WILL REMAIN WEAK. AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL
   OCCUR WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK
   0-3 KM FLOW RAISES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT/DURATION OF A MORE
   ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/28/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...
   
   LAT...LON   44800312 45270218 45230087 44390034 43520088 43470295
               44800312