MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1766
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0510 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KS...FAR SERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 272210Z - 272315Z
   
   AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DMGG DRY MICROBURST WINDS MAY EXIST THROUGH
   THE EVENING HRS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KS. COVERAGE IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF A WW.
   
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HRS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN
   DIURNALLY DRIVEN TCU/CB DEVELOPMENT /EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY/ OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND WRN KS INTO FAR SERN
   CO...PRIMARILY OCCURRING ALONG AND NEAR A WEAKLY CONFLUENT FRONT.
   STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING /CHARACTERIZED BY SFC TEMPERATURES
   RANGING FROM 100-115 DEG F/ HAS YIELDED SFC T-TD SPREADS NEAR 50-60
   DEG F...ALONG WITH A DEEP AND DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. WEAK VERTICAL
   SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR PULSE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH
   DOWNDRAFTS ENHANCED BY SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL
   /DCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG/ CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
   DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE THREAT SHOULD
   DIMINISH BEYOND 01Z AS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF
   DIABATIC HEATING.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 07/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...
   
   LAT...LON   37519803 37099914 37120158 37290238 37620317 38280283
               38510132 38619945 39049854 39329789 39329693 38509711
               37519803