MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1764
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NV...UT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 271902Z - 272100Z
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE HEATING CYCLE
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT A FEW OF THE
   STRONGER TSTM CORES COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AS
   WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NV AND SWRN UT APPEARS TO BE
   TIED TO SUBTLE COLD TROUGH ALOFT TRANSITIONING EAST WITHIN GENERALLY
   CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW. TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND LIFT ALONG NRN EDGE
   OF MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME ON THE NWRN FLANK OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS ARE
   ALSO CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT. OBJECTIVE
   DATA INDICATE RELATIVELY MOIST PROFILES AND MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER
   KG. 0-8KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE APPROACHING 40KT ACROSS THE
   REGION AND A FEW OF THE STORM UPDRAFTS COULD PERSIST AND RESULT IN
   HAIL TO AS MUCH AS 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. WHILE SURFACE AND SUB-CLOUD
   TEMP/TD SPREADS ARE NOT GREAT IN SOME OF THE AREA...DRIER BOUNDARY
   LAYER CONDITIONS ACROSS ERN NV AND PARTS OF WRN UT COULD ALSO RESULT
   IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AROUND A FEW OF THE STORMS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...VEF...LKN...
   
   LAT...LON   40061497 40141346 39491100 37681018 37101056 37101138
               37411221 37731299 37981477 38351539 39221553 40061497