MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1761
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0953 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN MINNESOTA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 270253Z - 270400Z
   
   A NEW WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET CORE MAY
   DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH 05-07Z. 
   BUT...IT NOW SEEMS THAT CONGEALING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SOUTH
   DAKOTA WILL TEND TO ADVECT WITH THE MODEST 30 KT WESTERLY DEEP LAYER
   MEAN FLOW FIELD THROUGH THE CREST OF THE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
   AIR IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO A CORRIDOR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
   /OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA/ INTO THE
   ALEXANDRIA AND MINNEAPOLIS AREAS.  THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
   MUCH AS THE EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SPREADS EASTWARD...BUT IT MAY
   BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA .
   
   ..KERR.. 07/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
   
   LAT...LON   45879582 46019472 45489356 44789263 44009200 43639280
               43649496 43659589 43689650 43969722 44719653 45379623
               45689636 45879582