MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0623 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...ERN NC...NRN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 252323Z - 260030Z
   
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND
   GUSTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WET MICROBURSTS. THE OVERALL LACK OF
   CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT WILL
   PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   SFC CONVERGENCE INVOF A TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS
   SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION EARLIER THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY DEPICTING CLUSTERS OF STRONG
   CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SC. THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL BE STEERED EWD TOWARD THE COAST GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL
   WLY WIND PROFILES WITHIN THE 2-6-KM-AGL LAYER OVER THE SRN FRINGES
   OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
   HOWEVER...OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...SOME SW-TO-NE PROPAGATION MAY
   OCCUR...AS AREA VWP DATA DEPICT A SWLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AOB 1.5
   KM AGL WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SOME NEWD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION OF
   COLD POOLS. POCKETS OF MLCAPE VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG WITHIN THE
   DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE VIGOR TOWARD THE
   COAST...PARTICULARLY OVER SERN VA AND SC WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES IN
   THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WILL SERVE TO BOLSTER UPWARD PARCEL
   BUOYANCY. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH WET
   MICROBURSTS...AS WATER-LOADING PROCESSES ARE ENHANCED BY PWAT VALUES
   OF 2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES PER GPS DATA. HOWEVER...THE SVR THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED OWING TO THE LACK OF GREATER CONVECTIVE
   ORGANIZATION WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES UNDER 25 KT. AFTER
   00Z...STABILIZING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OWING TO NOCTURNAL COOLING
   WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE STRENGTH.
   
   ..COHEN.. 07/25/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   35347943 36267848 37097811 37577783 37917734 37637629
               36137551 34837604 34087764 33767898 33838153 34728243
               35288178 35347943