MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0442 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/ERN PA...WRN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 683...
   
   VALID 252142Z - 252245Z
   
   A FEW STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ENE/WSW-ORIENTED SQUALL LINE
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/ERN PA AND WRN NJ COULD PRODUCE DMGG WIND
   GUSTS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. GIVEN THAT THIS THREAT WILL
   REMAIN ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AND BRIEF IN DURATION...AN ADDITIONAL WW
   TO THE SE OF WW683 WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
   
   RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST PORTION OF A SQUALL
   LINE STRETCHING FROM NERN PA INTO CNTRL PA IS CONFINED TO AREAS FROM
   LUZERNE COUNTY TO NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY. IN THIS REGION...RELATIVELY
   STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTING GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION
   AND OCCASIONAL BOWING STRUCTURES. A FEW INSTANCES OF DMGG WINDS
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS FAR ERN PA INTO WRN
   NJ. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SHORTLY AS IT
   ENCOUNTERS A RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
   LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SUPPORTING VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY.
   
   THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE IS MORE BROKEN AS IT TRAILS WSWWD INTO
   PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL PA...WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING. SOME AIR
   MASS RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED AFTER EARLIER PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN
   MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO LOCALLY 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WAVE CLOUDS
   OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ARE INDICATIVE OF SOME REMAINING CINH LEFT
   BEHIND BY EARLIER CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY
   MITIGATE THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   ..COHEN.. 07/25/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...
   
   LAT...LON   39877879 40267938 40487906 40707817 41207661 41457502
               40867452 40237488 39877601 39787737 39877879