MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SWRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 251956Z - 252130Z
   
   PORTIONS OF ERN SD AND SWRN MN ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASE IN
   THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER A WW WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IN ADDITION...AREA
   WILL BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN 20Z D1 OUTLOOK.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM
   SWRN MN W ACROSS CNTRL SD. AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR
   60S TO LOW 70S. PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERLAYS THE
   REGION...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HOT/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...IS
   CONTRIBUTING TOWARD MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2000-3500 J/KG. REGION ALSO
   RESIDES ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF 50+ KT MIDLEVEL NWLYS ACCOMPANYING
   AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING
   IN MODERATE TO STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   PROFILES...FAVORABLE FOR FAST MOVING STORM CLUSTERS AND LINE
   SEGMENTS. ANY STORM WHICH CAN MATURE/STRENGTHEN WITHIN THIS
   ENVIRONMENT WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
   AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   ..GARNER.. 07/25/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...
   
   LAT...LON   45319645 45119537 44359430 43839422 43789600 44199794
               45129888 45319645