MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1733
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0115 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WI...MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 251815Z - 252015Z
   
   THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS WITH WIND AND HAIL SHOULD INCREASE
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NRN WI AND THE UPPER AND NRN LOWER
   PENINSULA OF MI. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT OVERALL SEVERE STORM
   COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND LIMITED BY AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
   AND A WATCH MAY NOT BE NEEDED.
   
   A STRONG /60-70KT/ MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING A PRONOUNCED
   VORTICITY LOBE IN CNTRL ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO AID ASCENT AHEAD OF
   A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN MN AND THE NORTHWEST WATERS OF
   LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...A PRE-FRONTAL AND
   LAKE BREEZE-ENHANCED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALIGNED WEST TO EAST FROM NRN
   WI ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK
   INSTABILITY...HEATING AND PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
   TROUGH...AS WELL AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A
   LOW-TOPPED TSTM DEVELOPING WEST OF MQT. GIVEN THIS RECENT
   DEVELOPMENT...IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT OTHER STORMS COULD EVOLVE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN A STRONGLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME. FAST
   CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION WITH STORM
   MOTIONS ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM AS THE
   COLD FRONT MOVES EAST LATER TODAY...COINCIDENT WITH PEAK DIURNAL
   DESTABILIZATION.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/25/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH...
   
   LAT...LON   45688909 46299181 46609229 46849072 47008890 46948774
               46848630 46718499 46328407 45668335 45278318 45008326
               44578383 44458460 44508560 45688909