MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1212 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...DC...VA...PA...DE...MD...NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 251712Z - 251915Z
   
   THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/WET MICROBURSTS MAY BE
   INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF SERN PA....SRN NJ....AND THE DC AND
   NORTHERN DELMARVA REGION. OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO JUSTIFY A
   WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
   
   CELLS AND CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE STRENGTHENED COINCIDENT WITH
   HEATING OF THE DAY AND MOIST ELY INFLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
   TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN PA SWD INTO NRN VA. OTHER THAN THE SURFACE
   TROUGH AND IMPROVING THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DUE TO
   DIURNAL/DIABATIC EFFECTS THERE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED LARGER SCALE
   SUPPORT FOR STORMS IN THIS REGION WHICH IS REMOVED FROM STRONGER
   FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. DEEP-LAYER FLOW
   IS ALSO LIMITED ATTM AS EVIDENCED BY RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION.
   DESPITE THESE SHORTCOMINGS....ROBUST DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY
   FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND A LARGER COLD POOL APPEARS TO HAVE MATURED
   ACROSS SERN PA. LIFT ALONG STORM OUTFLOW/COLD POOL SHOULD SUPPORT AN
   EWD PUSH TO CONVECTION ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. AREAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING STORMS THAT HAVE HEATED INTO THE
   LOWER 90SF AND ARE WITHIN A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER DCAPE AROUND 1000
   J PER KG WHERE LOCALIZED WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/25/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
   
   LAT...LON   40457610 40507493 39907477 39297511 38597589 38377653
               38517690 38787710 39107737 39447743 40147695 40457610