MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1724
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0455 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...WRN KY...WRN TN...NERN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 242155Z - 250000Z
   
   WET MICROBURSTS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO LATE
   AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT WILL
   PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWD-PROPAGATING BROKEN SQUALL LINE
   ARCING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KY AND SRN IL INTO SERN MO.
   HALF-DEGREE REFLECTIVITY PER PADUCAH WSR-88D DATA SUGGESTS ATTENDANT
   OUTFLOW SURGING AHEAD OF PARENT CONVECTION...INDICATING THE
   COLD-POOL-DOMINANT NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM /DUE TO THE MEAGER AMOUNT
   OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/. REGARDLESS...THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE LINE IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND PWAT VALUES OF
   2.10 TO 2.25 INCHES PER GPS DATA. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SWD
   PROPAGATION INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION...AS UNSTABLE PARCELS ARE
   LIFTED TO THEIR LFC/S BY THE SURGING COLD POOL TO FOSTER
   REGENERATIVE CONVECTION. THE COLD POOL IS WELL MANIFESTED IN RECENT
   MESOANALYSIS...WITH A 1017-MB MESOHIGH OVER SRN IL ASSOCIATED WITH
   SFC PRESSURE RISES UP TO 4 MB IN 2 HRS. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
   LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A
   NE/SW-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
   THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO EXHIBIT PULSE CHARACTERISTICS AS IT IS
   REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER COLD POOL FORCING.
   
   AS FOR CONVECTIVE HAZARDS...SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   COMBINED WITH WATER-LOADING PROCESSES WILL SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS.
   DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY COLLIDING BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...THE
   ABSENCE OF GREATER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A THREAT FOR MORE
   ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND KEEP THE SVR THREAT ISOLATED. ALSO...GIVEN
   COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAINFALL RATES OF
   1-2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WITH
   ANY BOUNDARIES THAT BECOME STATIONARY AND SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
   TRAINING. THESE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AFTER 01Z AS
   NOCTURNAL COOLING SUPPORTS STABILIZING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
   
   ..COHEN.. 07/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...
   
   LAT...LON   37549071 37318988 37308837 37678757 37508680 36428710
               35368795 35098933 35459060 36509098 37549071