MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0104 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 241804Z - 241930Z
   
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY/MID
   AFTERNOON...AND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
   ATTM...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY DUE TO LIMITED SVR WEATHER
   COVERAGE. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   
   MID-DAY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE LOCATED
   FROM PORTIONS OF FAR WRN ND E-NEWD TO DVL. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND S
   OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...WHILE
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BOOSTED SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
   MID 60S. THE WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER IS AIDING IN STEEPENING
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DESTABILIZATION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
   MLCIN OBSERVED IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE DURING THE PAST FEW
   HOURS. AS A RESULT...SURFACE BASED CUMULUS GROWTH IS OCCURRING NEAR
   THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE. DESPITE A LACK OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ALONG WITH RECENT RUC AND 3KM HRRR
   GUIDANCE SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN AND CNTRL ND. THE PRESENCE OF STRONG 40+ KT
   DEEP LAYER WLY SHEAR AND MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG SUGGEST A
   SUPERCELL WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSING MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND/LARGE
   HAIL THREAT. DUE TO ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE...THE SVR WEATHER THREAT
   MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WW...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   ..GARNER.. 07/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...
   
   LAT...LON   47860211 48199945 47169877 45999997 45760284 46150419
               46860392 47860211