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Mesoscale Discussion 1702 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1702
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN ND...NWRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 230311Z - 230415Z
CORRECTED FOR WFOS IN POINTS PRODUCT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AND ERN ND
INTO NWRN MN. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE
NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL ND 120
TO 150 STATUTE MILES TO THE NORTH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD
ACROSS SRN ND INTO NERN SD. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS MUCAPE VALUES ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 250 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE
WITH LESS INSTABILITY THE FURTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS MOVES NEWD
ACROSS CNTRL ND. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL ND LATE
THIS EVENING SHOW 40 OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WHICH SUPPORT SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF A LARGE CLUSTER OF
STORMS CAN ORGANIZE.
..BROYLES.. 07/23/2011
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 47279568 47979742 48569891 48799996 48740062 48500115
48060121 47620099 47220028 46969977 46539917 46329820
45969747 45829646 45969555 46349521 46949532 47279568
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