MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1670
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0526 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OH...CNTRL/ERN IND...NRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 202226Z - 210000Z
   
   A FEW STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO EARLY EVENING. WHILE AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF
   DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE SPATIOTEMPORAL SVR THREAT
   IS TOO LOW TO NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.
   
   LATE AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A RATHER NONDESCRIPT PRESSURE
   PATTERN...AS CONFIRMED BY THE LACK OF MORE SALIENT BOUNDARIES IN
   RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. NEVERTHELESS...SUBTLE CONVERGENCE
   WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK MLCINH EARLIER SUPPORTED THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. MLCAPE
   VALUES OF 3000 TO 5500 J/KG...OWING TO PRE-CONVECTIVE SFC
   TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   LOWER/MIDDLE 70S...WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
   DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS STORMS COLLAPSE...THEY WILL BE
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES REMAIN STEEP AND AMPLE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE -- PWAT VALUES
   AROUND 2 INCHES PER GPS DATA -- SUPPORT WATER LOADING PROCESSES.
   HOWEVER...WITH INDIANAPOLIS IND AND WILMINGTON OH VWP DATA
   INDICATING GENERALLY WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE
   TROPOSPHERE...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT PULSE
   CHARACTERISTICS. AFTER 00Z...STABILIZATION DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING
   WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING TREND FOR ANY ONGOING
   CONVECTION.
   
   ..COHEN.. 07/20/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
   
   LAT...LON   40678634 40948497 40818349 40558225 40018173 38948215
               38158325 37878457 38138608 38648690 39558701 40678634