MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1645
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0909 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE NY...NRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 654...
   
   VALID 180209Z - 180315Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 654
   CONTINUES.
   
   THREAT OF DMGG WINDS CONTINUES INTO PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY AND
   CNTRL/NRN VT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP SEWD INTO
   ME...THOUGH WEAKENING TREND IN CURRENT CONVECTION SUGGESTS A WW MAY
   NOT BE NECESSARY DOWNSTREAM. 
   
   DIURNAL COOLING HAS WEAKENED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
   REGION...RESULTING IN A LESS ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS NRN NY
   AND NWRN VT. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ADVECTED
   INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC PER 00Z UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...AND WILL CONTINUE
   TO ADVECT INTO UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
   UPPER HIGH. THIS MAY SOMEWHAT OFFSET BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...AND
   LENDS SUPPORT TO AN OVERNIGHT THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AS A LEAD UPPER
   WAVE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE RENEWED CONVECTION.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 07/18/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...
   
   LAT...LON   44967507 45017153 45247134 45287109 43917106 43887158
               43687157 43557200 43597231 43787234 43947283 43827299
               43787415 44077427 44087512 44487581 44967507