MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1643
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0612 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE NY...NRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 172312Z - 180015Z
   
   THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND PORTIONS
   OF NEW ENGLAND WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
   SOON. 
   
   A STRONG UPPER IMPULSE THAT LED TO TORNADOES ACROSS ND YESTERDAY HAS
   QUICKLY PROGRESSED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH...AND HAS
   BECOME ORGANIZED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS
   LEADING WAVE HAS INFLUENCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BOWING SEGMENT
   MOVING AT 50 KTS THAT WILL PROGRESS INTO UPSTATE NY/NRN NEW ENGLAND
   JUST AROUND 00Z. CYWA NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER GUSTED TO 65
   KTS AROUND 22Z. GIVEN STRONG WNWLY FLOW...STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES HAVE ADVECTED ESEWD...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   ORGANIZATION DESPITE DIURNAL COOLING. DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH
   THE SURFACE...AS THE DEVELOPING INVERSION REMAINS SHALLOW.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 07/17/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...BUF...
   
   LAT...LON   45147049 44467114 44147249 44137461 44367579 44647557
               44957496 45027152 45347085 45147049