MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1637
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1137 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND AND NWRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 649...
   
   VALID 170437Z - 170500Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 649 CONTINUES.
   
   WW 649 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z.
   
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY ELEVATED...STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
   BEYOND 05Z...THOUGH A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATE AT THIS TIME.
   
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED SURFACE BASED INHIBITION HAS BEEN
   INCREASING IN STRENGTH FROM S-N ACROSS WW 649...LIKELY LIMITING THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED STORMS AND THE OVERALL
   TORNADO THREAT.  ALTHOUGH THIS PARTICULAR THREAT IS DIMINISHING...
   THE DEGREE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY YET AVAILABLE ACROSS THE ERN
   DAKOTAS/WRN MN /MUCAPE 3000-5000 J PER KG/...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
   AROUND 50 KT...AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM SUGGEST
   ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG
   WIND GUSTS.  VWP DATA PER WSR-88DS AND WIND PROFILERS HAVE SHOWN THE
   LLJ ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN VEERED TO SWLY WITH OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSES INDICATING WAA ACROSS ERN ND/NRN MN.  THIS WILL LIKELY
   SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BEYOND 05Z...THOUGH 03Z RUC/02Z
   EXPERIMENTAL WRF-HRRR SUGGESTED STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
   DIMINISH...AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED...THROUGH 08-09Z.  THUS...ALTHOUGH
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE BEYOND 05Z...WW 649 WILL BE
   ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
   
   ..PETERS.. 07/17/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...
   
   LAT...LON   46439917 47759907 49019659 49329465 48389419 47259413
               46539502 46399636 46439917