MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1635
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0514 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 162214Z - 162315Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TO
   NERN MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HOWEVER...CURRENT AND
   FORECAST STORM COVERAGE PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WATCH.  
   
   ESELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CENTRAL MT...N OF A FRONT WHICH
   EXTENDED FROM NRN ND SWWD INTO SERN/S CNTRL MT...APPEARS TO BE THE
   PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORM INITIATION THUS FAR ACROSS
   CENTRAL MT.  A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR PER 40-50 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS AND VERTICALLY VEERING
   WIND PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  HEIGHT RISES
   ACROSS THIS REGION MAY BE LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ROBUST
   ACTIVITY THUS FAR.  19Z EXPERIMENTAL WRF-HRRR SUGGESTS ONE OR TWO
   STORMS WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL TO NERN MT AS CURRENTLY
   OBSERVED WITH THE ACTIVITY IN PHILLIPS COUNTY.  THIS MODEL ALSO
   SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STORMS OVER SWRN MT WILL BE MAINTAINED...
   TRACKING NEWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN MT.  ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS
   APPEAR POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS OVERALL
   COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A WATCH.
   
   ..PETERS.. 07/16/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
   
   LAT...LON   48600672 48550435 47050428 46510723 46260921 46231063
               46521151 47111187 47931192 48490982 48650760 48600672