MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1631
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 161914Z - 162045Z
   
   DUE TO A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT...THE NEED
   FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED.
   
   CONVECTION HAS SHOWN RECENT INTENSIFYING TRENDS NEAR/NORTHWEST OF
   BEMIDJI...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A
   SUSTAINED BUT GENERALLY WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EMERGING FROM
   THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH MAY HAVE DEVELOPED A SMALL MESOSCALE
   CONVECTIVE VORTEX.  NEW STORMS DO APPEAR ROOTED IN A MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...BUT WITH INSTABILITY
   SOMEWHAT TEMPERED AS CLOUD COVER LIMITS SURFACE HEATING. 
   STILL...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG...IN THE
   PRESENCE OF ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A
   40-50 KT 500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM...POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
   INTENSIFICATION EXISTS WITHIN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS
   THE RECREATIONAL AREAS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.  THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL IMPACT AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF
   HIBBING BY 21-22Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY
   WINDS.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/16/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
   
   LAT...LON   47869479 48419441 48119188 47379262 47529487 47869479