MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1629
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 161252Z - 161445Z
   
   A CLUSTER OF STORMS FORCED ON THE NOSE OF A SLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS
   PRODUCED LOCALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL OVER CNTRL ND THIS MORNING.
   MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH SUFFICIENT
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
   
   FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
   WEAKEN A BIT...BUT WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS ND WITH 20-25 KT OUT OF
   THE S THROUGH AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN MANAGE TO SURVIVE FOR A
   COUPLE MORE HOURS...DAYTIME HEATING MAY LEND ITSELF TO REJUVENATION
   AND A SEVERE THREAT OVER ERN ND.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/16/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   LAT...LON   47710064 48359846 48039755 47359724 47029757 46940051
               47110070 47710064