MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL MT AND FAR N CNTRL WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 152039Z - 152245Z
   
   STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS S-CNTRL MT/N-CNTRL
   WY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING. THESE
   STORMS WILL THEN MOVE E/NEWD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
   STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.
   
   TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON AND CINH HAS BECOME WEAK. WITH CONTINUED HEATING THE CAP
   WILL QUICKLY ERODE AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
   AS SBCAPE VALUES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. FAST
   MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTH AND WITH
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40-50 KT...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE OFF OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO BETTER
   MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF S-CNTRL AND SERN MT WHERE
   DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS OF 20Z. MORNING SOUNDINGS
   FROM TFX AND GGW INDICATED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LATEST
   MESOANALYSIS SUPPORTED THIS SHOWING VALUES AROUND 8 C/KM. GIVEN
   FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN ADDITION TO THESE LAPSE
   RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.
   ADDITIONALLY...STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
   THESE STORMS WITH SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS NEAR 30 DEGREES F
   RESULTING IN DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG...MAINLY ACROSS THE
   BYZ CWA.
   
   BECAUSE THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR STORMS OTHER THAN
   DAYTIME HEATING AND A SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELD
   NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN...STORM COVERAGE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW INTENSE CELLS
   DEVELOPING.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 07/15/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...
   
   LAT...LON   45001077 44971154 45461192 46141207 46581184 47041064
               47210897 47200801 47060695 46730590 46390537 45860527
               45380532 44880567 44650600 44440658 44430703 44660763
               44760912 44940993 45001077