MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0323 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED.....EXTREME SERN WY/CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 132023Z - 132230Z
   
   STORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WITH AN
   INCREASE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH
   TERRAIN AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE AS THE
   ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TRENDS IN
   CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
   A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   WHILE THE CO HIGH PLAINS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE GIVEN
   EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION GIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
   THE 60S WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY.  THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD THROUGH
   NERN CO /AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IDEAL
   FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...SOME
   OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL EXPECTED GIVEN
   WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
   
   STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE IN THE PRESENCE OF
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORM
   ORGANIZATION INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  THE
   PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THOUGH A
   BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED GIVEN THE VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND
   PROFILE.
   
   ..JIRAK.. 07/13/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   41070354 40750341 40440325 40250316 40050306 39880275
               39770261 39560227 39570191 39530174 39470129 39480098
               39380072 39270062 39080050 38900057 38740079 38580115
               38480154 38380186 38300271 38210356 38170408 38200449
               38280476 38440475 38660476 39910533 40400536 40830525
               41190518 41390493 41460462 41450445 41390431 41320413
               41200378 41070354