MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1585
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0751 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN OH...NWRN WV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 120051Z - 120145Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL
   OH...AND MAY AFFECT SRN OH/NWRN WV DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS.
   CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
   FOR ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE.
   
   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 00Z SHOW A PRONOUNCED SURFACE COLD POOL
   RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF OH INTO WV. WARM/MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS LOCATED OVER THE LWR OH VALLEY REGION IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD
   INTO OH...AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THE COLD POOL. IN
   ADDITION...OTHER STORMS OVER WRN OH WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE SEWD
   TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE OBSERVED 00Z ILN RAOB
   SAMPLES AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
   THE 80S/DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES YIELDING MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 6000 J/KG. LOW AND DEEP LAYER
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND
   POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THUNDERSTORMS OVER
   IND/WRN OH WILL DEVELOP A COLD POOL AND THEN PROPAGATE SWD...CUTTING
   OFF UNSTABLE INFLOW TO CNTRL OH STORMS. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...A
   NEW WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED...BUT CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   ..GARNER.. 07/12/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
   
   LAT...LON   39968050 38928097 38648218 38888308 39718340 40668301
               40788199 40538096 39968050